Miguel Otero IglesiasMiguel Otero Iglesias

International Political Economy at Elcano Royal Institute

Podemos

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The Spanish Rubik’s Cube

 

Rubik

Photo: Toni Blay

This article was written with my colleague Ignacio Molina and was first published in Handelsblatt Global Edition on the 22 December 2015. The three options still stand

Spain has a new, more fragmented, political landscape.

For the first time since democracy was reinstalled in 1977, the distribution of votes is so dispersed that neither the right nor the left can form a government.

The conservative Popular Party won Sunday’s elections with only 29 percent of the votes and 123 seats, which means that the 40 seats of the liberal Ciudadanos party will not be enough to help it reach the 176 seats necessary for an overall majority.

Similarly, the Socialists – the PSOE – with 90 MPs and the leftist anti-austerity party Podemos, which was the big winner in this election, with 69 seats, also don’t reach this threshold.

In order to rule, they would need the support of a combination made up of a minor leftist party plus the Catalan and Basque regionalists and pro-independence parties. This effectively would require the coordination of up to nine or ten parties given that Podemos is a coalition of four groups.

Needless to say that this would be extremely difficult, especially in a country that is not used to multi-party pacts.

So how can Spain solve its electoral Rubik’s cube?

After listening carefully to the first statements by the political leaders, we think that the following are the three most likely future scenarios. The first is that the center-right PP forms a minority government, with the socialist PSOE abstaining.

The second possibility is that of a minority government by the PSOE with the support and abstention by Ciudadanos and Podemos respectively, or vice versa.

The third option is a snap election.

Reaching an agreement will be extremely difficult, but not impossible.

The first scenario could be feasible for several reasons.

Mariano Rajoy, the leader of the PP, will do what he can to keep his party in power. The Socialists, in turn, will refuse to enter a “Grand Coalition” like in Germany. They are afraid to end up like Germany’s social democratic SPD or, even worse, the PASOK in Greece. But at the same time they are afraid to push the country to new elections, in which even more of the traditional left vote might go to Podemos, a party which has strong momentum right now.

It is important to remember that for a successful investiture the party that wants to govern only needs more support than rejection.

This means that PSOE and Ciudadanos could abstain and see the PP governing in a minority.

In order to convince his electorate that this is the most strategic move, Pedro Sánchez, the leader of PSOE, could ask for the head of Rajoy and several programmatic concessions.

It would then be up to the PP leadership to decide whether they want to sacrifice Mr. Rajoy and some of their decision-making in order to stay in power or prefer snap elections, in the conviction that after this period of instability they might do better because they will win back much of the vote that went to Ciudadanos.

Ironically, exactly for this same reason, Ciudadanos will try to avoid a new election. That means when push comes to shove they might be willing to support the investiture of PSOE.

In this scenario, Mr. Sánchez would need a yes from Ciudadanos and assume Podemos would abstain.

Another variant of this outcome could be that Podemos supports Mr. Sánchez and that Ciudadanos abstains. This is less likely since Ciudadanos has declared that it will never support a government in which Podemos is directly or indirectly involved because its leader Pablo Iglesias is in favour of a binding referendum for independence in Catalonia, whereas Ciudadanos is firmly opposed.

Thus, in this second PSOE-led government scenario the more likely outcome is a PSOE investiture supported by Ciudadanos and with Podemos abstaining.

All three would benefit. They could all claim that they have pushed for “change,” which is a feature of all of their campaign slogans.

PSOE would get into power, Ciudadanos would become the kingmaker, its agreement crucial for structural reforms and Podemos would mount a strong opposition, and back only those laws that match its program.

Of course, there are some drawbacks for both PSOE and Ciudadanos in this scenario.

Ciudadanos has said they would not support a government led by the party that did not win the election. If it were to do so, the party would disappoint many of its supporters that came from the right, and hence lose part of its base very early on in its consolidation as the liberal party of Spain.

PSOE, for its part, might not want to govern in a weak position with Podemos in the opposition.

So if either of the first and second scenarios comes to pass, with a minority government, every law will be contested and need to be approved in a complex framework unprecedented in Spain.

Or we throw the Rubik’s cube again, have a snap elections and start playing a new game, in the hope that it is more like the old one.

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General elections in Spain: from a two- to a multiple-party system?

Written with Salvador Llaudes (my colleague at Elcano) for the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN) Newsletter, Winter 2015.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Spaniards are called on 20th December to decide whether the Government’s job over the last four years in overcoming the crisis was good enough to win again their support. Europe´s austerity framework was reflected in Spain in a series of unpopular measures in the shape of (considerable) cuts and (some) reforms. The economic crisis has been accompanied by a political crisis which, without any doubt, will have an effect in the electoral result with the emergence of two strong political forces.

Despite the already mentioned austerity cure, the still high level of unemployment at 21%, the pro-independence challenge from Catalonia and the multiple cases of corruption, the most likely scenario is the victory of the centre-right Popular Party. This win, however, will happen with an important loss of vote sharing compared to 2011, following the trend of the 2014 elections to the European Parliament and the 2015 local and regional elections, where it was also the strongest party but losing citizens’ support.

Despite losing its overall majority, the likely victory of the ruling party – an anomaly in Europe during the economic crisis – is caused by the weak position of its traditional rival for power in Spain, the PSOE. The Socialist party is still suffering from the loss of credibility of the second half of the second legislature of Rodríguez Zapatero, and has been unable to regain the electorate´s confidence in spite of changing its leadership.

Two parties have emerged from nowhere, benefiting from the lack of trust in both the PSOE and PP. Contrary to what we have witnessed in the past years in other European countries, none of them has an anti-European or xenophobic attitude. On the one hand, there is Ciudadanos, a centre-liberal and reformist party. On the other, Podemos, who carries the spirit of the Indignants Movement, and encroaches on PSOE´s support from the left. Both parties are strong contenders and may be kingmakers after the 20D, as they are now polling above 15% of the vote.

What can we expect the day after the elections? The four more likely scenarios are the following:

What can we expect the day after the elections? The four more likely scenarios are the following: Click To Tweet

a) PP-Ciudadanos. This is the most probable scenario. As said, PP will win the elections but will still need a partner to rule. If the drop in support for the PP is great, it is difficult to see Ciudadanos be part of the Government or simply support Rajoy to become the next Prime Minister. He is still tainted by the corruption scandals. However, with a different head of government (maybe Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, the current Vicepresident) and a clear pro-reform agenda and anti-corruption emphasis, a deal is likely. Nevertheless, to maintain stability, Ciudadanos might also support a minority government led by Rajoy if he obtains a strong result.

b) PSOE-Ciudadanos-Podemos. A united front between the three political forces seems the only way of impeding the PP to rule. Nevertheless, this is difficult to happen as Ciudadanos and Podemos only coincide in the fight against corruption and political regeneration, and have very different visions in many issues, from their economic program, to dealing with Catalonia or their social policy. If PSOE could rule only with Ciudadanos or Podemos it would be easier, as its positions are more flexible towards the two emerging parties.

c) PP-PSOE. Highly unlikely. In Spain, as it happens in other countries such as the United Kingdom (and unlike Germany), the main party “has to be” in the Government, and the main opposition party “has to be” in the opposition. If this coalition were to happen, it could cause even more damage to the Socialist party, which has already rejected the possibility of ruling with the Popular Party.

d) PP-PSOE-Ciudadanos. A very remote, although interesting, option could be that both PP and PSOE obtain bad results and humbly accept to form a consensus pro-reform government together with Ciudadanos. In this scenario Rajoy – a divisive figure – would step down and let the three parties agree on a compromise figure –Santamaría for example. Under this arrangement, the three parties would start a series of pending structural reforms that need a broad consensus such as reforming the labour market, the administration, the education system and even the Constitution. This scenario would be the best to deal with the Catalonian crisis.

In any of these scenarios, what seems self-evident is the fact that the traditional Spanish two-party system will not work for these elections (although it might remerge in the future). This will have an effect on the way the Congress will operate and on how the future Government will decide its policies. The stability of the Government will suffer but it may also increase the quality of the debate and the plurality of the policy options in what some describe as the “second transition period” for Spain. Still, there is a risk that the new Government will only rule for a short mandate if the agreements between parties are not solid enough. Indeed, after the 20D we will see whether Spain´s democracy is fit for multiparty, consensus-based, and perhaps even coalition governments.

 

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The effects of Grexit: My comments to the International Press

Over the past weeks I was interviewed by several international media outlets about Grexit (the real one and the one proposed by Schäuble) and its potential effects for Europe, Germany and Spain. Here are my comments for Radio France Internationale, Bloomberg, El País, MNI Euro Insight, and The Telegraph…

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Interview for France24 on the 2015 Local Elections in Spain

My interview with France24 analysing the local and regional elections in Spain where Podemos and Ciudadanos have been the biggest winners. Spain is entering a new political era where dialogue, negotiations, pacts and coalitions will be the norm.