Miguel Otero IglesiasMiguel Otero Iglesias

International Political Economy at Elcano Royal Institute

Greece

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Berlín no cederá hasta que caiga París

Berlin

En su más reciente entrevista a Claudi Pérez de El País, el ex-ministro de finanzas de Grecia, Yanis Varoufakis, dice que  la estrategia final de Schäuble es hacer que París acepte la necesidad de ceder más soberanía para construir la unión fiscal y política necesarias para hacer del euro una moneda sostenible en el tiempo. Si Grexit es el sacrificio que hay que hacer para conseguirlo, que así sea. Ya se sabe, el fin justifica los medios…

Esto me hizo recordar que hace tres años escribí en Expansión una columna titulada: Berlín no cederá hasta que caiga París. Parece que la estrategia alemana no ha cambiado mucho desde entonces. Lo que sí que no contemplaba por aquel entonces es que Draghi saliese en Julio de 2012 diciendo que haría todo lo que haga falta para salvar el euro. Eso, el OMT y QE han hecho que Berlín no pueda contar con los mercados para ejercer presión sobre Francia. Quizás es por eso que Schäuble se ha sacado la carta de Grexit de la manga. Está claro que la construcción de una unión política nunca es un camino de rosas…

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Merkel´s Eurozone Crisis Management is shaped by her China experience

Image of the silk route

I see that the Eurozone (Greek) crisis debate is dominated by a strong Euro-centric approach (austerity yes, or no…). Not even the Anglo-American commentators are able to see this crisis within the larger crisis of Western decline versus the rise of the Rest, especially China. In this new piece for Politico Europe I show why Merkel is one of the few European leaders who has a global perspective. She has visited China almost every year in her 10 years in office and discovered that if Europe wants to keep its welfare model, it needs to become more productive and competitive… everything else is just dreaming and romanticising the past…

 

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Schäuble has killed off the Grexit fairytale

Drachma

After the 11-12 July Greek-End Schäuble has been harshly criticised for putting the possibility of a temporary Grexit on the negotiating table of the Eurogroup. In this piece, published in the LSE EUROPP Blog, I develop a counter-factual argument. I argue that intentionally or otherwise, with his strategy Schäuble has finally killed off the Grexit fairytale told so many times by Krugman, Stiglitz, Sinn, O’Rourke et al. The piece has had quite a success. On the last account it had been shared more than 1.200 times via twitter or Facebook.

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The effects of Grexit: My comments to the International Press

Over the past weeks I was interviewed by several international media outlets about Grexit (the real one and the one proposed by Schäuble) and its potential effects for Europe, Germany and Spain. Here are my comments for Radio France Internationale, Bloomberg, El País, MNI Euro Insight, and The Telegraph…